700 Section - Global Evolution of Musculoskeletal Rehabilitation Requirements (1990-2050): Insights from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) are leading causes of global disability, imposing heavy socioeconomic burdens. The aging population, sedentary lifestyles, and limited access to quality healthcare in many regions exacerbate this issue. This study aims to analyze the prevalence trends, gender and age disparities, and health inequalities associated with MSDs to inform targeted strategies to alleviate the global MSD burden.

Design:

Data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study were used to investigate epidemiological trends and health inequities of seven MSDs, including osteoarthritis (OA), rheumatoid arthritis (RA), low back pain (LBP), neck pain (NP), fractures, amputations, and other injuries, from 1990 to 2021. Joinpoint regression was applied to identify significant changes in historical trends, while autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models forecasted MSD burden through 2050. Disparities in MSD burden across gender, age, and sociodemographic Index (SDI) were also analyzed.

Results:

Globally, most MSDs showed rising prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2021. Projections indicated steady increases in OA and RA by 2050, whereas LBP and fractures were expected to decline in a sex-specific manner. Women bore a higher MSD burden than men except for amputations and fractures. OA, fractures, and LBP exhibited more prominent age-related risks, peaking in older adults. High SDI regions had higher MSD prevalence and YLDs, with marked inequalities in fractures, OA, LBP, and RA. In contrast, low SDI regions experienced increased YLDs due to amputations. Projections further suggested worsening health inequalities for overall MSDs and RA.

Conclusion:

This study highlights the growing global MSD burden. Addressing this requires enhancing quality and coverage of rehabilitation services in primary care, especially in low SDI regions. Additionally, targeted interventions for gender- and age-specific risk factors are essential to mitigate the global impact of MSDs and improve health outcomes.